Uncertain times for Jack Layton's NDP

John Henry dropped almost a whole person in weight while successfully campaigning against incumbent mayor John Gray last fall in the municipal election. He covered a lot of ground over the two to three month campaign period and the hard work paid off with a mayoral victory.

Election campaigns take a lot out of the candidates and their volunteers be it at the municipal, provincial or federal level of politics. In order to be election ready it's best to be healthy because any campaign typically plays out like a marathon.

That's why there's reason to worry for the federal NDP. With an election a very real possibility in the next few weeks the party's leader, Jack Layton, is scheduled for hip surgery to repair a fracture. You may recall Layton is also undergoing treatments for prostate cancer.

Jack Layton

I've watched Layton in action before. As a former municipal politician in the City of Toronto it always amazed me at the amount of energy the guy had. He was the most easily accessible councillor for any reporter and he was everywhere in his riding. If there was a community event happening he could be found there. It was hard keeping up with the guy.

When he jumped to federal politics and became the leader of the NDP he took his enthusiasm and energy to another level and it paid off. Under Layton's leadership the party has made significant gains in the number of federal seats the party's won for the NDP. It could be argued Layton's been one of the best leaders the party's had since Ed Broadbent led the party.

But cancer and hip surgery has a tendency to slow a person down no matter what their energy levels. If the NDP, Liberals and Bloc defeat Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's budget later this month and the Conservative minority falls, will Layton be ready to hit the ground running to fight an election? I'm doubtful.

Layton's people are saying he's going to be back in the House of Commons for the budget on March 22. They're making his hip surgery out to be a minor operation. But when you're going to be forced to campaign across the country the question in my mind is this, will his hip hold out?

I wish him well in his recovery but know if an election does happen it will be the toughest one he's ever fought.